It’s another season of local flooding, see-saw temperatures, western wild fires and severe storms to the south. Locally, we are hearing some farmers around Simcoe County lament the losses that they are, and will be, suffering this year.
Now, a new study published in the journal, Science, predicts that “unmitigated climate change will damage the poorest-third of US counties to the tune of 20% of total income. The regions that will be hit the hardest in the US over the coming years economically will be primarily in the South and in the lower Midwest. In other words, economic centers will be likely to move northwards, leaving the hotter, southern parts of the US impoverished …”.
(Perhaps not wanting to wait, Missouri just voted to lower the minimum wage in St. Louis by 23% from $10/hour to $7.70/hour, but that’s another story.) Continue reading
It’s interesting that, just as the U.S. is pondering whether to honour the Paris Climate Change agreement, Clean Technica is drawing attention to research with alarming implications for the future of food security by 2050:
“Global production of the 4 most important staple crops in the world — maize/corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans — will be reduced by around 23% by the 2050s as a result of worsening anthropogenic climate change, according to new research published in the journal Economics of Disasters and Climate Change.
Notably, even by the 2030s — not that long from now — production of the staple crops mentioned above are expected to fall by ~9%, owing to rising temperatures (both rising minimums and maximums), increasingly extreme weather, and drought.
It should be noted that the findings don’t take into account rising soil depletion/erosion problems, the possibility of synthetic fertilizer shortages, or the possibility of large-scale wars or social breakdown. In other words, things could get notably worse than the figures above, which are already quite extreme.” Continue reading
A while back I mentioned a report that suggested more than half of the province’s $20 billion of food imports could be replaced with locally sourced products. (Of Bubbles and Bushels). Replacing just 10% of fruit and vegetable imports was projected to add $242 million to provincial GDP and add up to 3,400 FTE [full time equivalent] jobs.
Since then we’ve had a glimpse of how unstable things could become economically, and politically as well as environmentally, in the coming years. A political storm could outweigh climate change as our biggest threat. It would make sense to give this food security proposal some serious consideration.
The report, Dollars and Sense, suggested increasing some production, diverting a portion of exports and redistributing this fruit and vegetable surplus to Ontario regions where supply is lacking. This would achieve the goal of reducing transportation ‘food miles’, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It also suggested increasing processing and storage of more products for winter consumption.
“A 10% reduction in imports of the top 10 imported vegetables does not necessarily call for additional local production to make up the difference. In some cases, such as tomatoes, peppers, carrots and sweet corn, it may involve diverting some exports to offset the import reduction. In others — for example, cabbage, lettuce and green beans — increased production may be needed. These different situations have somewhat different economic and environmental impacts.”
Our region, included in ‘The Outer Greater Golden Horseshoe’ accounts for “at least $2.4 billion worth of farm products” but has a “deficit position” for most fruits and vegetables. Carrots, onions, sweet corn and potatoes are the exception. Continue reading
Here we are approaching the end of another year. It seems many of us will be glad to call an end to 2016 but equally anxious about what’s ahead in 2017. There should be a sign, “Caution – Bumpy Road Ahead”. I’d like to share some of the reading I’ve been doing that seems particularly relevant now.
First off, I came across an interesting discussion of the Carbon Bubble, “the idea that there is a bubble in valuation of companies dependent on fossil-fuel-based energy production” (Wikipedia):
“As futurist Alex Steffen recently explained, vast amounts of the world’s carbon reserves can never be tapped, so their pricing represents a “carbon bubble” analogous to but even worse than the subprime housing bubble. “The Carbon Bubble will pop,” Steffen wrote, “not when high-carbon practices become impossible, but when their profits cease to be seen as reliable.”
To maintain the carbon bubble, an array of strategies are required: disputing the science of climate change, attacking global climate agreements, undercutting low-carbon
alternatives and preserving fossil fuel subsidies.” (What Populist Revolution?, Salon Media, Dec 26, 2016) Continue reading
As a gardener and member of the local horticultural society, I’d like to help spread the word that District 16 (Simcoe County) of the Ontario Horticultural Association (OHA) provides an annual Award to a student enrolled in a post-secondary horticultural program of at least 2 years.
Horticultural students in Simcoe County can apply for the Dr. Ives Horticultural Fund of District 16. This Award was established in 1976 to honour Dr. Raymond Ives of Stayner, a respected horticulturalist and family physician. “This award is intended to encourage the study of horticulture at the post-secondary level by students with homes in Simcoe County.”
“When there is a shortage of applications for two year horticultural students; students enrolled in a post-secondary horticultural course shorter than 2 years, in an independent horticultural course of study or in environmental and conservation programs are eligible for a reduced award.”
Applications are being accepted until October 15. For more information, visit the Ontario Horticultural Society, Dr. Ives Horticultural Award or download the Application Form: DIHA.
Regular readers of this blog know that I’m a big fan of the Transition movement, which advocates for greater local self-sufficiency to build resilience against environmental and economic shocks. Transition is not intended as a policy guide for governments but rather an action guide for ordinary citizens. But I’m going to spend some time looking at how this underlying philosophy could influence planning activities in Innisfil, such as Our Place and other routine civic governance.
Actively supporting Transition would require that we focus on greater self-sufficiency in our basic needs – food; energy; transportation; housing and employment. Let’s start with food. The County of Simcoe formally adopted a Food Charter in 2013 developed by 12 “organizing partners” including Barrie and Orillia working together as the Food Partners Alliance of Simcoe County. The Food Charter itself is an inspiring document full of noble intentions. Here are some quotes:
- “For farming to remain a vital part of our economy for generations to come, and to ensure regional food security, agricultural lands as a natural resource will need to be protected.”
- “Made up of the people, places, and processes involved in the production of food, our local food system includes such functions as the growing, harvesting, marketing, processing, packaging, storing and distribution of food …”
- “Working together to remove the physical and financial barriers to food access, promote healthy eating, and increase access to places where people can buy, grow or otherwise obtain healthy foods, is an important step towards eliminating hunger.”
- “Enhancing opportunities for local food and agriculture-related businesses or producers (both large and small scale) to produce, store, package, promote, sell, and deliver their products locally and elsewhere is important for a sustainable food system and long-term economic growth.”
- “The people of Simcoe County should seek new opportunities for increasing food production in both rural and urban areas, advocate for the protection of farmland, and support increased educational opportunities in agriculture (for both large- and small-scale farming)”
How’s that working for us so far? Well, if you visit the Food Partners Alliance web site, the focus seems to be solely on individuals and organizations assuming responsibility for implementing this ‘vision’. Let’s look at the practical aspects of land use planning in Innisfil as if the Food Charter mattered.